GTA REALTORS® Release April 2021 Stats

Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) set a new record for April and amounted to more than quadruple that from April 2020 – the first full month of the pandemic. Bucking the regular seasonal trend, April 2021 sales actually declined month-over-month. A similar trend was noted for the number of new listings reported.

GTA REALTORS® reported 13,663 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in April 2021 – a 12.7 per cent decrease compared to March 2021, but more than quadruple the number of sales reported in April 2020, when the economic impact of COVID-19 was arguably the worst. Compared to the ten-year sales average of 10,000 for the April 2010 to April 2019 period, the April 2021 sales result was up by 36.6 per cent.

New listings followed a similar track – down by 8.4 per cent compared to March 2021, but more than triple the number of new listings reported in April 2020. Compared to the ten-year new listings average for the April 2010 to April 2019 period, the April 2021 new listings count was up by 18.3 per cent.

“While sales remained very strong last month, many REALTORS® noted a marked slowing in both the number of transactions and the number of new listings. It makes sense that we had a pullback in market activity compared to March. We’ve experienced a torrid pace of home sales since the summer of 2020 while seeing little in the way of population growth. We may be starting to exhaust the pool of potential buyers within the existing GTA population. Over the long term, sustained growth in sales requires sustained growth in population,” said TRREB President Lisa Patel.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 17.8 per cent year-over-year. The Composite benchmark also increased on a monthly basis, but the pace of monthly growth decelerated. The average selling price of $1,090,992 was up by 33 per cent compared to April 2020, but was basically flat relative to March 2021. This was in contrast to most years in the past when the average selling price increased between March and April.

“Despite a modest slowing in market activity in April compared to March, selling prices for all major home types remained very high. Low borrowing costs during COVID-19 clearly had an impact on the demand for and price of ownership housing. While the pace of price growth could moderate in the coming months, home prices will likely continue on the upward trend. Renewed population growth over the next year coupled with a persistent lack of new inventory will underpin home price appreciation,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Why housing is still the best investment for most Canadians

Owning a home remains the largest single investment for most Canadians. So it’s not surprising that fear over an economy turned upside down literally hits home for so many.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) recently warned the pandemic and resulting lockdown of the economy could drive the country’s average home prices down by between nine per cent and 18 per cent, as job loss and uncertainty force many Canadians to the sidelines. The federal housing agency expects the housing sector will not return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2022.

Most of the concern centres on oil-producing regions hit hard by the crash in crude prices. Housing analysts also point out vulnerability in big cities; especially the booming Vancouver and Toronto condo markets.

That’s potential bad news for speculators or those who just bought a home in a vulnerable region and want to sell in the next three years. For most long-term homeowners who can maintain a sufficient source of income, the best and safest investment remains the roof over their head.

According to the CMHC, average Canadian house values have increased by over five per cent annually over 25-year periods going back to the Second World War. That includes the 2008 global financial meltdown when predictions for a housing market collapse never materialized.

Many homeowners have already benefited from the pre-pandemic housing boom, and for new homeowners, any decline over the next three years can easily be absorbed once the market gets back on track.

For potential homeowners, the next three years could finally open an affordable window to the residential real estate market. One of the biggest pre-pandemic risks in the housing market was the threat of higher mortgage rates, but massive government spending and the resulting drag on economic growth mean that borrowing rates will likely remain low for a long time.

What really sets a home apart from any other investment is its intrinsic value. A home is considered real estate. That means it is a real, tangible, asset and will always have a significant basic value. Other equity investments have intrinsic values, but they can be difficult to measure consistently in relation to their price. Bitcoin, for example, has no intrinsic value because it is backed by nothing. The only value in bitcoin, and many other equities that trade on public exchanges, is a belief by investors that it has the intrinsic value reflected in its trading price.